If you're a sports fan, then you know that betting on your favorite teams, or any game in general if we’re being honest, can add an extra level of excitement (and sometimes stress!). But if you're new to sports betting, it can be difficult to understand all of the different odds formats.
That's where our odds conversion tool comes in! Whether you're interested in betting on the NBA, NFL or horse racing, this handy tool will help you convert odds from one format to another instantly. Better yet we also show you the implied probability to help you understand how often your bet would have to win to profit long term.
Why should I care about betting odds?
It is important to understand that any betting line a sportsbook offers is based on their internal models that have created the spread, total, moneyline, etc and is directly related to the probability that they think such an outcome will occur. This is called the “implied probability” of the betting line. Anyone who is looking to make money betting should first calculate their own “true probability” or “true line” and compare it to what the sportsbook is offering. If your true probability or true line is different from what the book is offering, that means you may have found value and it might warrant a bet.
What is implied probability?
Implied probability is the likelihood of an outcome, represented as a percentage. The formula to calculate this probability is relatively straightforward. It is 1 divided by the decimal odds *100.
For example, if the Dallas Cowboys are +300 in American odds, which is equivalent to 4.0 in decimal odds & 3/1 in fractional odds, then their implied win probability is 1 divided by 4 = .25 or 25%.
Why is implied probability important?
If you want to determine whether the bet you are making is a good one, understanding how to compare implied odds vs true odds is very important. Determining the true odds is why you pay us. The easiest way to understand this is to look at the moneyline odds, but similar logic can be applied to spreads, totals, player props, etc. Using the above example of a sportsbook offering the Cowboys ML at +300, this is converted to an implied probability of 25%. Our job is to determine what we believe are the true odds of the Cowboys winning. If we calculate that they win the game more than 25% of the time, that would make this a good bet. We use a variety of quantitative models and qualitative analysis to come up with a % of time they win this game. If our number is higher than 25% then there is value in betting the moneyline. Depending on how much greater our percentage is, we assign a unit value to the play with a higher unit number indicating more value on the play. When looking at player props, totals and spreads the true odds are not solely based on how often we think the specific play covers the number the sportsbook has given us. Most of these plays have odds of -110 which converts to a 52.38% implied probability. With these types of bets, we first create our own lines using a variety of methods. If these numbers differ from what the sportsbooks are offering then there is value and will once again warrant a bet.